NO UNJUST TRANSITION
We knew the federal government's "Just Transition" plan was bad.
We knew it would cost hundreds of thousands of Alberta workers their jobs.
But, even we didn't expect it to be this bad.
A memo, recently acquired from the federal Natural Resource Minister's office, reveals the full extent of the damage this idea will do to Alberta.
Let's just say, it doesn't feel good to say we told you so.
According to the memo, 13.5% of Canada's workforce, from all across the country, will be 'affected' by the 'transition' to 'green' jobs.
But it also notes that:
"The transition to a low-carbon economy will have an uneven impact across sectors, occupations and regions, and create significant labour market disruptions."
We'll give you one guess which sector and which region will be most heavily impacted...
Just over 27.3% of Alberta's GDP depends directly on the oil and gas industry, while the other 72.7% does so indirectly.
About 200,000 workers in Alberta are facing the prospect of being forcibly re-trained or forced into an unemployment line - and that's just in energy.
Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and transportation will all also be heavily affected.
By the federal government's own admission, almost every "transitioning" worker will require special skills in order to find a new job.
But, it's not practical, feasible, or economical, to train every single oil and gas worker in the province for a new job.
A job that doesn't even exist yet, and for which we're relying on the government to create - yeah right!
After reading the memo, Don Braid at the Calgary Herald called the transition plan "dynamite", "shocking in scope", and "so universal, and the outcome so undefined, that even the most ardent advocates of climate action should feel some serious doubts".
Braid's article continues:
At stake is a full one-quarter of Alberta’s economy, with all the royalties, income taxes and other economic benefits that come from oil and gas, both for the province and the federal treasury.
It's impossible to see how even the most brilliantly magical of job transition plans could replace the majority of all that.
The hit extends to "larger scale transformation" for agriculture, another massive economic sector both in Alberta and in Saskatchewan. Do they plan to replace wheat with, say, avocados?
"This makes the NEP look like a children's play toy," [Premier] Smith said, referring to the Liberal National Energy Program of 1980.
"And where is (NDP Leader) Rachel Notley on this? She should be standing with me and every Albertan against it."
Credit to Don Braid for actually covering this issue - we’ve been trying to draw attention to these devastating consequences for our economy for two weeks!
When the federal government re-ignited this debate, we got together with our friends at Project Confederation and launched a petition against the plan.
(You can click here to sign the petition if you haven’t already.)
Unfortunately, though, our province's journalists and political commentators seemed determined to avoid covering the issue altogether.
The CBC even had Rachel Notley on one of their shows for an entire 45 minutes and talked about almost everything except whether she supported the "Just Transition".
The closest they got was when they discussed how annoying it was that the plan had been delayed.
When we asked the CBC why they hadn't bothered to ask Notley whether she supported it, the CBC said that would have been an unfair question because the plan isn't out yet.
However, even before we got our hands on this memo that wasn't true.
Prime Minister Trudeau has been talking about a "Just Transition" for years, and so have the federal NDP.
Ottawa has been telling us they plan to put an end to oil and gas, and a draft proposal has even been released.
(Never mind the fact that the final version of an idea not being released has never and would never stop the media from asking a politician a question if the roles were reversed).
I was even blocked by Rachel Notley on Twitter a few days ago for having the temerity to ask her the simple question of whether or not she would support Trudeau's "Just Transition" legislation if elected Premier:
Without this memo coming to light, they all would have probably succeeded in burying this issue.
Late yesterday afternoon though, mounting pressure finally forced Notley to say something.
It took her 15 days, but she finally spoke out about the "Just Transition", and now says that she opposes it.
The obvious next question is whether her new position can be trusted.
Remember: at this point in 2015, Rachel Notley was opposed to a Carbon Tax too - only to then immediately introduce one anyway as soon as she was Premier.
Either way, we'll keep doing our job - bringing attention to important policy issues that others would prefer to keep quiet, and holding politicians of all strips accountable for their actions and their promises.